Strategic bets / September 2026
Here’s where
I’m placing my bets.
I don’t buy the idea that AI is all hype. I think we’re seeing a change in what people and companies can do, and I’m willing to put my own expectations on the record.
My current position
AGI, by my functional definition
I think we have effectively crossed the threshold: systems with broad cognitive capability that can use tools, operate computers, research, code, communicate and pursue goals across domains. That is my definition and my assessment, not a claim of universal agreement.
75% by December · My subjective estimate
A political and social “red alert” on AI and employment
My bet is that disruption to computer-based work becomes much harder for politicians and the public to ignore by the end of 2026. I put my own probability at 75%. If it takes longer, I expect the alarm to be much louder by mid-2027.
My current bet
A major financial correction, while AI keeps improving
I expect a substantial correction in AI-related valuations and investment expectations. The problem won’t be that the technology is fake. It will be that spending and expectations have run ahead of the financial returns.
Economic consequence I expect to watch
Recessionary pressure from an AI correction
I think an AI-led market correction could create serious pressure on the US economy and spill over globally. An outright recession is part of the scenario I’m concerned about, rather than something I regard as guaranteed.
My infrastructure timing bet
Delayed infrastructure becomes economically important
I expect a significant wave of capacity from the current buildout to become useful around 2028, arriving alongside better models, hardware, agent systems and inference efficiency.
Conditional on the correction scenario
A renewed AI investment cycle
I expect a reinflation rather than a permanent collapse. The next expansion could be driven increasingly by demonstrated economic work, with capability continuing to develop through the correction.
My longer-term vision for Kairo
AI that helps you navigate your possible futures
My bet is that AI will use a deep, evolving understanding of your ambitions and circumstances to explore thousands of possible routes, then keep adapting them as your life and the world change. Making this accessible within an ordinary subscription depends on the cost of useful AI computation falling.
Read the full thinking